NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Rashaad PennyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to total 13.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- Rashaad Penny has garnered 49.0% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- Rashaad Penny has grinded out 69.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (97th percentile).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense boasts the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.01 yards-per-carry.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
