Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 12.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has been given 52.3% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Raheem Mostert has picked up 53.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (76th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.8% run rate.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards