Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 14.4 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has earned 56.3% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding 5.02 yards-per-carry.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Najee Harris’s ground effectiveness (3.77 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (14th percentile among RBs).
Najee Harris has been among the worst running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.73 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 23rd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards