Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-103/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-103) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to earn 16.5 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Miles Sanders has been given 51.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Miles Sanders has grinded out 73.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (95th percentile).
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (130 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
