Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to notch 11.9 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Miles Sanders has generated 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (92nd percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (36.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (46.3% in games he has played).
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
