Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 16.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- Leonard Fournette has received 67.1% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 34.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 3.96 yards-per-carry.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
