Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to earn 13.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a more integral piece of his offense’s running game this week (43.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (30.3% in games he has played).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Khalil Herbert has averaged 51.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among running backs (75th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
