Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Justice HillRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Ravens rank as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 44.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Justice Hill to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (32.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.9% in games he has played).
- Justice Hill has been among the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.12 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 80th percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
Cons
- The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards
34
Rushing Yards
