Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (+100) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been given 68.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (87th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized some form of misdirection on a measly 40.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards