Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Raiders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (+100) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 14.3 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been given 68.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (87th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized some form of misdirection on a measly 40.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
