Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 19.5 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has garnered 80.8% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has generated 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Joe Mixon’s ground effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a measly 2.98 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.09 rate last season.
- Joe Mixon has taken a step back when it comes to grinding out extra ground yardage this season, totaling 1.78 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
