Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 14.7 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has earned 68.7% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (86th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Joe Mixon has been among the bottom running backs in football at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.73 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 92 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards