NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 48.5 (-135) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to earn 14.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (40.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.5% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.07 yards-per-carry.
- The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles rank as the best group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
