Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jeff Wilson

Jeff WilsonRushing Yards

Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 48.5 (-135) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

O/U 48.5
-115/-115

O/U 49.5
-110/-110

O/U 48.5
-101/-135

O/U 48.5
-110/-115

Pros

The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to earn 14.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his team’s run game this week (40.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.5% in games he has played).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.07 yards-per-carry.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles rank as the best group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards