Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-132).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to earn 14.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Javonte Williams has been among the best running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.40 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 110 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
