Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 7th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to accrue 12.0 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
- Javonte Williams has been given 47.3% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- Javonte Williams has averaged 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (82nd percentile).
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
- The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
