Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Raiders
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-114) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (46.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.0% in games he has played).
- James Cook’s running effectiveness (5.79 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (94th percentile among RBs).
- James Cook has been among the top running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.09 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 77th percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 4.75 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.8% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
