Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cardinals vs. Giants
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 43.0% run rate.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
- James Conner has picked up 61.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (86th percentile).
- The New York Giants defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding 5.32 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
