Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to total 18.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Jamaal Williams has garnered 57.6% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Jamaal Williams has averaged 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (89th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 43.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
