NFL

Bets

September 14, 2023

Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jahmyr Gibbs from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards

Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).

Pros

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Lions have been the 2nd-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 47.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more important option in his team’s running game this week (36.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.3% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in the league (149 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers rank as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards