Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Bengals
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 51.5 (-131) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 66.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to accumulate 12.9 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- Ezekiel Elliott has been given 59.0% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Ezekiel Elliott has grinded out 56.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (87th percentile).
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
