Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 80.5 (-115) after it opened @ 81.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.1% run rate.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 21.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 89.8% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
