Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 80.5 (-115) after it opened @ 81.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.1% run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 21.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has earned 89.8% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Cons

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards