Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-125/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-125) after it opened @ 79.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 19.9 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has earned 79.6% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has averaged 90.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among RBs (99th percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering 5.49 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans offense as the 8th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards