Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Commanders
Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.4% run rate.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
- D’Andre Swift has grinded out 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
- The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (30.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.8% in games he has played).
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards
36
Rushing Yards
