Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Damien Harris from EV Insight

Damien HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 51.5 (-133) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Damien Harris has received 51.6% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Damien Harris has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (89th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.3 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards