Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Damien HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Damien Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 51.5 (-133) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Damien Harris has received 51.6% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Damien Harris has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (89th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.3 plays per game.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
