Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accrue 16.2 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has picked up 69.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to be a much smaller piece of his team’s running game this week (52.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (75.6% in games he has played).
- The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles rank as the best group of DTs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
