Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-151/+110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-151) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to total 15.7 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has earned 77.9% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has generated 89.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
