Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Chase EdmondsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 42.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to be a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this week (49.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (39.1% in games he has played).
- Chase Edmonds has picked up 46.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (78th percentile).
- Chase Edmonds’s ground efficiency (4.96 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (87th percentile among RBs).
- The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Dolphins have been the 6th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 29.1% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Chase Edmonds has been among the worst RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.62 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
