Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 13.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has generated 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team’s running game this week (52.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.0% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards