Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a heavy 10-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Aaron Jones has earned 48.9% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Aaron Jones has generated 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (4.83 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (84th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-least run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 34.8% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
