Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Raiders vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 41.5 (-106) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 25.47 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to earn 6.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
