Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cardinals vs. Giants
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Zach Ertz has run a route on 88.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Zach Ertz’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 59.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
