Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Zach Ertz has run a route on 88.6% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Zach Ertz’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 59.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards