Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 11.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Tyreek Hill’s ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this year, notching a mere 0.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.14 rate last year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.0%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.45 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
107
Receiving Yards