Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Tyler KroftReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Tyler Kroft’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 14.5 (-125) after it opened @ 14.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
- Tyler Kroft has run a route on 51.3% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Kroft has accounted for a colossal 7.6% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (59.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
12
Receiving Yards
12
Receiving Yards
