Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
- Tyler Higbee has been among the least effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging a lowly 6.18 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 20th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (67.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (67.4%).
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, allowing 5.91 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
