Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 40.5 (-139) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tyler Higbee has run a route on 85.1% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 54.2%.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 3.93 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.01 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards