Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (+110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-117).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 5.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.92 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
