Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (-105) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Jets are a 6-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 4.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 15.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has notched a colossal 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Tyler Conklin’s receiving efficiency has diminished this season, totaling just 3.97 yards-per-target vs a 7.01 mark last season.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
