Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 65.0 yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 123.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.12 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
