Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 41.5 (-133) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.4% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled a whopping 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.6% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 49.6%.
T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 5.22 yards-per-target vs a 7.12 figure last year.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards