NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Commanders
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 41.5 (-133) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.4% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- T.J. Hockenson has compiled a whopping 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.6% pass rate.
- T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 49.6%.
- T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 5.22 yards-per-target vs a 7.12 figure last year.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.18 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
