Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to garner 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 28.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been among the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 90.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards