Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-105) after it opened @ 33.5 (-108).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to total 4.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Sam LaPorta has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in an impressive 100.0% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 100th percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in the league (72.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Lions rank as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
