NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.2% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Robert Tonyan has run a route on 64.0% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has accumulated a monstrous 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among tight ends.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the most effective pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging an impressive 8.72 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 10-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
- The Chicago Bears defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 35.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
