Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Rashod BatemanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Rashod Bateman’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 67.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashod Bateman to be a more important option in his offense’s passing offense this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.0% in games he has played).
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.94 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 117.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.6%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
