Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-114) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).

Pros

The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has notched a colossal 50.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in just 66.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has shown strong efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, yielding 7.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards