Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-114) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has notched a colossal 50.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- Pat Freiermuth has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in just 66.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 22nd percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (63.5%).
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has shown strong efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, yielding 7.05 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
