Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Parris Campbell from EV Insight

Parris CampbellReceiving Yards

Right now, Parris Campbell’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Parris Campbell to accrue 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Parris Campbell to be much more involved in his team’s pass attack this week (18.8% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.1% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the NFL (74.8%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (74.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, yielding 9.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.

Cons

The Colts are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards