Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 3.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has been a key part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 18.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has put up a whopping 34.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant has been among the top tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
