Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Nico Collins has posted a whopping 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among WRs.
- Nico Collins’s 55.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 82nd percentile for WRs.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Nico Collins’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 57.7% to 50.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
