Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Mike EvansReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to total 9.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Mike Evans has been among the worst WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 12th percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
