Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Thomas from EV Insight

Michael ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to notch 9.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.02 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards