NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Michael ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Michael Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to notch 9.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.2%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.02 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
