Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to earn 8.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Michael Pittman has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a measly 7.17 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
