Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.5% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to earn 8.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Michael Pittman has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a measly 7.17 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards